Cuba/United States relations- A step in the right direction

What a difference a day makes in politics. The Unites States for the longest time has employed a policy of containment and isolation regarding Cuba. The only visible US paraphernalia on the Island of Cuba was a deserted U.S. interest section housed by CIA operatives and Cuban dissidents masquerading as diplomats. The shores of South Florida and the Florida Keys are clearly visible from the Havana sky line and yet still, they were worlds apart. Most pundits of US-Cuba relations have been riding the tide of life waiting for the demise of Castro to engage the last frontier in the Western Hemisphere with the vestiges of the cold war. Barack Obama has gone where no other US president has gone by side stepping the “Prisoners Dilemma” in the Game theory which was basically the policy adopted by all his predecessors regarding Castro and his Island Nation. He has up the ante and any reversal of his declaration regarding the establishment of ties with the island nation will tantamount to the renewal of hostilities and this cannot be afforded by any administration.  

If Joe McCarthy and J. Edgar Hoover were alive today, they would have considered Obama a communist sympathizer who deserves to be assassinated or impeached. The cold war is over and all relics of the cold war should be dismantled just like Ronald Reagan told Michael Gorbachev "Mr. Gorbachev! please tear this world down". A War of ideology and sphere of interest across the Florida Keys have taken a heavy toll on the Cuban populace. The Bay of Pigs, the Mariella boat lift and the frequent antics of Fidel Castro on the world stage made the Cubans resilient to outlive a sanction regime that has caused undue hardship to the Cubans. Barack Obama did the right thing by ending the collective punishment of a people who chose where their strategic interest resides. Humility and reasoning are the corner stone of leadership and Obama exude these traits. Ride on my African brother. Barack Obama is a tactful calculating leader who wants to open up America's sphere of influence and also re-brand America’s image outside the shores of the United States. America has been seen as the world police and he wants to demystify that assumption. It would have been unthinkable that an American President will encourage talks with nuclear Iran, attempt to close Gitmo, offer universal health care coverage and wage a fiscal war on the 2% of Americans whose tax obligations are not in line with their income. Like him or hate him, but he has change the course of US foreign policy by disengaging the United States from age old quagmires they found themselves in without tangible exit strategies. America now has to tread carefully in its engagement with the Havana establishment and avoid meddling in the internal affairs of the state of Cuba. It’s just a matter of time before Cubans demand for more individual rights and the Cuban exiles in South Florida are not the solution to Cuba’s problems. Cuba’s redemption will be home grown with the passage of time. The Castro’s are not new comers in global politics and they will cautiously manage the new relationship with their northern neighbor to smoothen the transition of multi party democracy.

Obama’s world view is different from any other US president and he owes this to his upbringing in Hawaii and Indonesia. Presidential historians have their plate full because he has far exceeded the expectation set forth by his critics and supporters. His book title "Audacity of hope" is clearly not an accident but a deliberate design by a young maverick who believed he can change the world and change he did. Kudos to him and the early Christmas present Santa delivered on his behalf across the Bering Straits to President Putin. Truly a smack on the face of an arrogant Putin who is currently embroiled in a multi-dimensional mishaps ranging from a crashing Ruble, Ukraine and falling energy prices which is the life line of Russia

Tourism- A paradigm shift and product diversification

Last night I had a sumptuous dinner amidst good company of friends at my favorite spot in the Gambia- Coco Ocean Spa and Resort. One of Gambia’s priced hospitality real estate was literally a ghost town and begged for human interaction and economic activity. Once I made my observation, a passionate and heated discourse ensued regarding the dwindling and lack luster tourist arrival statistics. Some of my friends were upbeat and optimistic as usual hoping that the next season will be better and the Ebola scare will wane off sooner than later. I opined that the Ebola scare that has dented our economic growth for 2014-2015 tourist season is a blessing in disguise for our tourism product offering. My premise on face value sound reckless and devoid of merit but the tourism sector is screaming for a U-turn in market approach and focus.

This U-turn is called product diversification and the sooner we venture in diversifying our product the better. Economic and business principles advocate for product diversification as means to smoothen out the ebb and flow of the business cycle. In the early 1960’s, the Gambia accidentally stumbled into winter tourism through Bertil Harding and thereafter, we carved a niche in the Scandinavian and British markets. These markets have been the corner stone of what we call our tourism trade and in a way, it has added significant value in our GDP over the years. Our winter bird arrivals are mostly senior citizens who are looking for a place to spend a week or two in the winter months. We are cognizant of the fact that UK and other populations in the European Union have been encountering economic slowdown since 2007 and this consequently affected our arrival rates negatively. This coupled with the Ebola scare is a justification to diversify our product offering and target audience. Africa’s growth and prosperity will only be achieved if we look inward. The time has come for the Gambia to develop intra country and regional tourism. Affluent and middle class Gambians travel to Western Europe, North America and the Emirates for their summer vacations and periodically on weekends to Senegal. Their actions collectively cause significant capital flight albeit voluntarily. The hotel industry should cater to this segment of society and spur local tourism. Our heritage and culture is also another priced asset that’s undervalued. Diasporans of African origin will love to pay pilgrimage to places such as James Island, Juffureh and Georgetown slave house but this can only be achieved through deliberate and target oriented marketing. Regional tourism is also a product to be explored. Countries such as Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Nigeria and Ghana are candidates due to the considerable amount of petro dollars in the hands of their elites. All this can be made possible with reliable air connectivity and competitive pricing. The recipe therefore calls for a public/private mix where public policy creates the environment for such a vision to thrive and this starts with review on taxation and concession for infrastructure enhancement and development in the sector. The Smiling Coast is resilient and will forever smile despite adversity and mishaps.  Our sun, sea and sand together with our warm hospitality create a contagious bug that lure people to our shores. The slogan “Gambia No Problem” should be effaced from our lexicon as soon as possible and we work on vibrant and resilient brand that is tenacious and buoyant.

A drop in the International Price of crude does not automatically translate to a drop in the Price - Well atleast for the Gambia

Petroleum pricing albeit complex can be explained by the price at the pump. In a dynamic pricing model, an upward or downward swing in price of crude filters down at the pump. Crude oil is generally used as a benchmark for pump prices and the Gambia is concerned with the price of refined petroleum products such as Jet fuel, Diesel oil and Morgas. Globally, the price of crude oil has dropped in excess of 40% from June 2014 to date ($112 to $70 per barrel).  The drop in crude price positively impacts the price of refined products per metric ton.  Petroleum products are drivers of economic growth and the cost of electricity, taxi fares, a bag of rice and cement are all indexed to the cost of petroleum. Therefore, all things being equal, a drop in the price of petroleum at the pump will be a relief to consumers since most if not all economic activities are sensitive to energy prices. The average consumer wants to benefit from the drop in price but not so quick and it is highly unlikely that the drop will translate to a reduction at the pump in the case of the Gambia. This in simple terms defies logic, but there are other factors preventing the pass on savings to the consumers.

The sharp drop in the price of petroleum products internationally may not filter down in the case of the Gambia for the simple fact that the exogenous factor (savings made on the cost of procuring fuel internationally) is eroded by an indigenous factor (difference in exchange Dalasi/Dollar exchange rate). Our petroleum importation is settled in dollars therefore the current exchange rate absorbs all the savings accrued in the procurement of fuel. Currently, there is an inverse relationship between the price of fuel and the cost of the dollar against the dalasi. Our current pump price is in line with the current price of the dollar locally and the ONLY way we can benefit from the slumping oil price is when our dalasis/dollar rate changes with few dalasis needed to exchange a dollar. 

In a static environment where the impact of indigenous variables are negligible to price differentials, the current state of global oil prices COULD HAVE BEEN a blessing for the Gambia. This could have been a much needed economic stimulus that will jump start and smoothen the cyclical dents we are currently encountering due to Ebola and a poor rainy season. 40% reduction on oil prices locally, would have been a boost for consumer spending by creating excess disposable income which would have spurred growth but this is wishful thinking because our current fundamentals especially on the forex front would not be in a position to accommodate such an eventuality. Therefore until such time that our fundamentals can take advantage of global pricing, we will live with our current dispensation. 

Yes to Politics

Welcome to Africa 2014. Our potential might is yet to be translated into brute force that can spearhead a revival or awakening of our people. I must say that the people with the knowhow and vision still refuse to chart the murky waters of African politics yet still; we want to accrue socioeconomic dividends to the masses. The intellectual class of Africa should take the bull by the horn and be the drivers of this continent's destiny otherwise, we will continue to live in abject poverty and despair. Politics of development should be spearheaded by people with the requisite skill and understanding of the consequences of their inaction. The intellectual class cannot remote control change by operating in the periphery of our development agenda, nor can we outsource our functions and deliverables to society. Politics is a noble profession and we should not shy away from it.

The establishment of think thanks and interest groups should be the precursor of political awakening.  Our collective political capital should be able to bankroll change in the interest of our dear continent. Africa’s relegated position in the global stage is primarily due to ignorance of the power vested in our political capital. Being educated is a privilege vested in a few and society at large rest their hopes and aspirations on the educated elite to map out and execute viable strategies for growth and development within the continent.  Politics will always affect our lives and livelihoods therefore; we cannot shy away from the discourse and deliberations of issues affecting us. If we are not willing to chip in the preparation of the meal, we should not expect a seat on the dinner table.

Journey of Last Resort

Life is worth living when we live for a purpose. The perpetual quest in looking for greener pastures has been the basis for migration and mass exodus of people from Western Europe to Australia and North America, from the Middle East to Latin America and the current exodus of Africans to Western Europe. This phenomenon has facilitated the growth of a diasporan population particularly of Lebanese and Syrian origin in Argentina and Brazil.

Unfortunately, the African has never migrated en masse voluntarily be it the trans Atlantic slave trade, the Sahara or orient trade and now the forced migration of youths from Africa south of the Sahara to the Shores of Southern Europe. The plight of Africa’s youth has reached an endemic state and it is no longer a national problem but rather a regional problem for countries south of the Sahara. This problem needs a concerted effort at the regional level to stem the tide of the perilous loss of young souls on the desolate desert and stormy seas of the Southern coast of Europe. The gloomy expedition otherwise called the “Back Way Voyage” to Europe has become a menace in our societies both in Africa and Europe. The African continent is increasingly losing its most prized assets i.e. its youth and the Europeans are faced with an influx of would be refugees who are adding a burden in an already volatile socioeconomic environment. The precarious situation that Europe finds itself in with regards to the influx of refugees is partly their making in the sense that the global economic order has been skewed in favour of the first world particularly in the areas of trade and legal migration. The time has come for the World Trade Organization (WTO) to revisit its trade policies and we MUST also admonish African governments to invest more in its youth to reduce the high incidence of unemployment. Africa’s youths are somehow in a state of despair and the idea of “Tukki Tekki” is their last resort for redemption and self actualization. Personally, the “Back Way Voyage” has been a peripheral issue until it hit closer to home. Over the years, I have acquainted myself with many young dynamic and energetic youths whom I believed were beacons of hope for their nations. I was saddened by the demise of a young lad whom I knew personally and his zeal to succeed was insurmountable. Rest in peace young blood for you have persistently fought against the odds and obstacle on your way.

The political class in Africa has a role to play in this anomaly. They have to sincerely, sustainably invest resources in youth development and succession planning in the youth folk. Equally, the West is also part of the problem. Inequalities in all its forms are a recipe for disaster. The idea of social justice and equality is not part of the development agenda well at least between "us and them" (Africa and its Development partners). It baffles me why a Gambian should pay the British Embassy 70,000 dalasis (1,500 dollars) for visa fee to enter Britain. This is not only absurd but a blatant disregard for human decency. Remember Malcolm X said that “we never landed on Plymouth Rock but Plymouth Rock landed on us”). The new world order and it's dispensation of economic dividends and opportunities are not only crafted by the powers that be, but they are designed to perpetuate and extend their control over our dominion. That said, the solution to Africa's problem is inextricably linked to Europe's prosperity therefore, Europe and rest of the Western world should advocate for policies that are mutually beneficial. A case in point is the UN Security Council. Why it is that Africa cannot have a permanent seat on the council given the size and population of the Continent? Nigeria and South Africa are two candidates that an equitable United Nations would have added to the list of permanent members but the congruence of western hegemony and idiocy controls the global agenda. I can go on and on, but African leaders need to do more by investing significantly in its future and that is its youths. The epitaph of the youths lost on these voyages reads; " Pondering about our motherland Africa. War and crime, political fuckery, poverty and destitution forced us on daring voyages across the desolate Sahara. Third world people with first world problems".